My colleague Jason Logan has a column called “Bet Now, Bet Later,” which partially illustrates the value in betting NFL odds sooner rather than later, as lines move throughout the week (and with it any betting edge).
Yes, there is a “Bet Later” part, which preaches patience, but we’re not concerned about that here — we’re just going to focus on the “now” part… only to the extreme.
While Jason’s BN/BL examines the potential odds movements within a certain week, I’m actually looking a week ahead and examining the look-ahead lines for any numbers that we think will not exist come Sunday night, when the official opening odds are posted.
For example, before Week 2 started, the Falcons were posted at +3.5 on the look-ahead line at Seattle for Week 3. Fast forward to last Sunday and the official opening line saw Atlanta +2.5, and now: books are showing a pick’em… or even Atlanta -1.
We’re playing chess here, not checkers.
Now, the Falcons may not end up not covering this weekend, but a 4.5-point edge is a pretty big value, and getting value is half the battle. So with that in mind, let’s explore the current look-ahead NFL Week 4 odds for what we think are exploitable betting opportunities.
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